Big Island Real Estate in 2026: Boom or Bust?
As we welcome 2026, many buyers, sellers, and investors are asking the same question: What’s really ahead for Big Island real estate this year?
The short answer—2026 isn’t about extremes. It’s not a runaway boom, and it’s not a collapse. It’s a strategic market, and the people who win will be the ones who understand how to price, position, and plan correctly.
Below is a breakdown of what matters most heading into the new year.
January 2026 Market Overview
A new year always brings a reset, and the Big Island real estate market is no exception. As early data from 2025 continues to come in, several key themes are already emerging—especially in the luxury and resort segments.
This month’s focus:
The 2025 Big Island Luxury Market Report
Seller pricing strategy for 2026
Interest rate expectations
Early appreciation trends across the island
2025 Big Island Luxury Market: What Happened?
If you own property—or are considering buying—in resort and luxury areas such as Kohaniki, Kukio, Mauna Kea, Mauna Lani, Waikoloa Beach Resort, or surrounding communities, 2025 delivered meaningful insights.
Performance varied by location, price point, and property type, but the luxury market continues to show resilience and long-term strength.
A full breakdown of how each luxury area performed in 2025 is available upon request, and the complete Luxury Report will also be published on our website.
Selling in 2026: Why Pricing Is Everything
If you’re thinking about selling on the Big Island this year, pricing is not part of the strategy—it is the strategy.
One of the biggest mistakes sellers make is listing at a competitive price. In today’s market, competitive pricing often leads to properties sitting longer than expected.
What works in 2026 is compelling pricing.
A compelling price does one thing very well: it dares the buyer to pass it up. It creates urgency and makes buyers feel like they need to act now—not later.
This does not mean fire-sale pricing or giving your home away. It means pricing ahead of your competition so your property sells before others do.
The Three Questions Every Buyer Asks
Every buyer who walks into a home—whether they realize it or not—answers three simple questions:
1. Do I love the location?
2. Do I love the layout and finishes?
3. Is this priced appropriately for both of the above?
If the answer is “yes” to all three, you’ll get an offer.
If the answer is “no” to even one, you won’t.
Marketing, photography, and copy matter—but they don’t override these fundamentals. Pricing aligned with location and condition is what ultimately drives results.
Interest Rates in 2026: What to Expect
Interest rates will continue to be a topic of conversation this year, but it’s important not to fixate on them.
Most projections show rates hovering around 6%, with the possibility of dipping into the mid-5% range. While changes at the Federal Reserve may help improve conditions slightly, there’s no indication of dramatic drops in the near term.
The takeaway: don’t sit on the sidelines waiting for something major to happen with rates. Smart buyers and sellers are making decisions based on lifestyle, long-term value, and market positioning—not headlines.
Appreciation & Investment Outlook
While full 2025 statistics are still being finalized, one long-term trend continues to hold true:
The Big Island averages about 6% appreciation year-over-year.
Some years are stronger, some slightly softer—but over time, the island has shown consistent growth.
Notably, South Kohala and resort areas such as Waikoloa Beach Resort, Mauna Lani, and Mauna Kea outperformed the island average, appreciating approximately 8.37% year-over-year.
To put that in perspective, an 8% appreciation on a $1,000,000 property translates into meaningful equity growth in just 12 months.
This is why buyers looking at second homes, luxury properties, or short-term vacation rentals continue to see the Big Island as a long-term play—not a short-term gamble.
Short-Term Rentals & Property Management
Questions about short-term vacation rentals come up daily—from performance and appreciation to management and logistics.
If you’re considering a vacation rental investment, having accurate, local data matters. Equally important is understanding what happens after you purchase—property management, local regulations, and long-term strategy.
We’re always happy to walk through these details and connect you with trusted resources, including mortgage professionals, title companies, and property management services.
Final Thoughts
2026 is shaping up to be a year where preparation and strategy matter more than ever. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing on the Big Island, understanding pricing, appreciation, and local market dynamics will put you in a strong position.
If you’d like a copy of the 2025 Luxury Market Report, detailed year-over-year statistics, or want to talk through your real estate goals for 2026, feel free to reach out.
