Hawaiʻi Real Estate Market Update – November 2025
by Dan Polimino
Prices, Rates & Big News from NAR’s Chief Economist
This month brings some major insights into Hawaiʻi’s real estate market—and the national trends that will shape 2026. From a rare visit by NAR’s chief economist to new data on appreciation across the island, plus a full roundup of holiday events, there’s a lot to cover in this November update.
NAR’s Chief Economist Visits Hawaiʻi
In a rare and exciting moment for our local real estate community, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, visited Hawaiʻi and spoke to a room of over 100 agents at the Mauna Lani. His insights offered both validation and optimism for our state’s market.
Here are the key takeaways:
• Hawaiʻi homes appreciated 47% over the past five years.
This is statewide—an impressive reflection of long-term demand and limited supply.
• Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are at historic lows.
According to Yun, distressed properties are “almost nonexistent” in today’s market.
• Sales activity is expected to rise 15–25% in 2026.
After three years of flat or declining sales, this projected jump signals a healthier year ahead for both buyers and sellers.
• Interest rates will remain the biggest driver of buyer decisions.
While employment trends and local job markets matter, Yun emphasized that mortgage rates overwhelmingly influence whether people buy, wait, or move up.
Where Are Interest Rates Headed?
I asked Dr. Yun directly where he sees rates settling. While many of us have long hoped that 5.5% would be the sweet spot for a balanced market, Yun believes we should prepare for 6% as the new normal.
Recent rates have hovered between 6.1% and 6.2%
He sees the possibility of dipping into the high 5s
But overall, 6% is likely where we’ll stabilize
For buyers, this shift means adjusting expectations—but not necessarily slowing down plans. With inventory improving and sales activity expected to rise next year, 2026 may offer new opportunities across the islands.
Which Big Island Areas Appreciated the Most?
The analytics site Stacker recently ranked the 30 most expensive towns in Hawaiʻi, and several Big Island communities made the list. While some of their numbers could use verification, the trends are still interesting:
Waimea showed a slight 1.4% decrease year-over-year
But over the past five years, Waimea is still up an impressive 44%
If you want the full breakdown—including appreciation trends for Kailua-Kona, Puako, resort areas, and more—I’ve compiled everything into an easy-to-read report. Text or email me and I’ll send it right over.
2025 Holiday Events on the Big Island
The holiday season is officially here, and our full schedule of November–January events has just been released. From the Kona Coffee Festival to the Waimea and Kona Christmas parades, the Boat Parade, and the Holualoa Lights Festival, there’s something happening nearly every week.
If you’d like the full list, just reach out—I’m happy to send you the complete calendar.
Market Activity Picks Up
After a quiet six months, the Big Island market has shifted quickly. Over the past two weeks we’ve seen:
More showings
More buyer inquiries
More mortgage applications
More homes going under contract
As we approach Thanksgiving, this increase is right on schedule—our real estate season traditionally runs Thanksgiving through April, and early signs point to a strong start.
Looking Ahead
Thank you for tuning in to this month’s market update. If you have questions about buying, selling, or investing on the Big Island, I’m always here to help.
Call or text anytime: 808-987-3306
